Global leaders are gathering in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting against the backdrop of a major shift in global risk priorities, with economic conflicts overtaking traditional security concerns as the most pressing immediate threat to global stability in 2026. According to the latest findings from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, released just days before the summit, geoeconomic confrontation — economic tensions between major powers — has risen to the top of the risk hierarchy, surpassing state-based armed conflict and extreme weather events.
The Global Risks Report, based on a comprehensive survey of more than 1,300 experts from government, business, academia, and civil society, reveals that 18 percent of respondents identified geoeconomic confrontation as the most likely trigger for a global crisis over the next two years. This marks a significant shift from previous years, when armed conflict and environmental risks dominated short-term concerns. The analysis highlights how tools such as trade wars, tariffs, export controls, investment restrictions, and battles over critical resources have become central features of geopolitical competition — and stand to disrupt the global economy more than traditional battlefield conflicts.
Geoeconomic pressures have manifested in multiple fronts, from trade disputes and sanctions to competition over natural resources essential to industrial and technological production. Experts warn that such confrontations could easily escalate into broader economic “wars,” featuring export bans, capital controls, disrupted supply chains, and retaliatory tariffs — factors that could stifle growth and undermine cooperation. As the WEF report notes, the evolving landscape is marked by a rising “age of competition” in which cooperation appears increasingly fragile.
The shift in risk perception comes at a time of heightened global tensions. Trade disputes between major economies such as the United States and China have intensified as countries seek to secure supply chains and critical inputs like rare earth materials. Simultaneously, the specter of renewed tariff battles and economic coercion looms large. Recent events surrounding discussions over Greenland and U.S. tariff threats illustrate how economic measures are now weaponized in geopolitical disputes, prompting strong responses from European leaders concerned about broader repercussions for trade and alliances.
While economic confrontation tops the immediate risk list for 2026, the report also underscores that dynamics are shifting across timeframes. In the short to medium term — over the next two years — economic conflicts remain at the forefront, followed by state-based armed conflict, misinformation and disinformation, and societal polarization. Over the longer 10-year horizon, environmental risks such as extreme weather, biodiversity loss and systemic planetary change re-emerge as dominant concerns, reflecting deep-seated anxieties about climate stability and ecological degradation.
Experts warn that the prevalence of economic tensions not only threatens immediate stability but also erodes the multilateral frameworks and trust that underpin much of the global economic system. Declining trust in institutions, the retreat from cooperative trade agreements, and the resurgence of protectionist policies could undermine globalization and heighten fragmentation. This “fragmented order” scenario could intensify competition and create new vulnerabilities — from disrupted investment flows to heightened financial volatility.
Amid these concerns, world leaders at Davos are emphasizing the need for dialogue and collaboration. The 2026 forum, held under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue,” aims to bring together heads of state, CEOs, civil society leaders and policymakers to address these intertwined challenges. Discussions are expected to focus on strengthening global cooperation, managing technological disruption, and crafting resilient economic strategies that can withstand geopolitical headwinds.
The message emerging from Davos is clear: while economic confrontation presents a new kind of risk — one that could reshape how nations engage with one another — it also highlights the urgency of reimagining global governance structures. If countries can navigate tensions through diplomacy and shared frameworks, they may mitigate the worst impacts of economic rivalry and build more durable systems for trade, innovation and collective security. The outcomes of these high-level discussions could determine whether the world responds to current crises with renewed cooperation or devolves into deeper fragmentation and competition.
