After decades of growth, India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation by mid-2023, data released on Wednesday by the United Nations showed. The United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million.
However, India’s growing population has many problems despite its rapid rise. Besides consuming resources, it can also cause severe social and economic issues as its population multiplies.
Based on information available until February, the UN’s latest report showed that India’s population rose to 1.4 billion. This is a slight increase over the 1.415 billion people counted last year, and it’s still more than the 1.42 billion in China.
India’s growth has been attributed to its youthful age structure and a decline in fertility that has pushed the country’s population to near replacement levels.
A declining birth rate in China has made it more challenging to keep up with growth, especially since the country started its one-child policy around 1980. This has led to a large proportion of elderly citizens and a sharp decline in the number of working-age adults per elderly person.
While population growth is essential for countries to avoid poverty and achieve economic development, it can also cause social and health problems in some areas. As the two largest economies in the world, India and China will likely have to deal with increased population density for decades.
India’s population is mainly concentrated in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh. However, the population will peak in these regions, with the total number of residents expected to reach 1.668 billion by 2050.
The UN’s report said that the population of India will grow to 1.668 billion in 2050, almost double the 1.317 billion in China. However, that will be the start of a period where China’s population will begin to decline, and it’s forecast to shrink to about 0.77 billion in 2100.
As with all demographic transitions, there are challenges for countries that face rapid population growth. For India, this is likely to include a decline in the labor force, which means it’s more difficult to attract workers and pay them a living wage.
There are also concerns about the effect on the public health of a growing elderly population. This issue has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused many people to remain at home.
During the past decade, the Muslim and Hindu birth rates have declined. This is partly because the government is encouraging women to have children by allowing them to work during childbirth, which can increase the number of children they can have.
A recent claim on Chinese social media that India’s population had surpassed China is simply internet disinformation, says Huang Yinghong, a professor at OP Jindal Global University in India. He points out that comparing the two populations is only meaningful if calculated using the same statistical method and that the number quoted by self-media doesn’t come from an authoritative official Indian source.